NBA Finals, Draft and Free Agency

It’s time for another blog post. I don’t get to do this as much as I would like to for whatever reason. Mostly I think it’s because I’m becoming lazier in my personal life. By personal life, I mean what I do with my own personal, individual time. Work and family dominate everything these days. So, my personal time is my only “down” time, and I enjoy not doing anything with my time. I use it to unwind and switch off my brain. But writing is also cathartic, so I should do it more. I want to write more. So here we go! (I’ll try to not to say “so” again LOL)

 

It’s currently at the best* part of the NBA year. NBA Finals start tomorrow, the draft lottery has been and gone, the combine has happened and there are free agent rumours starting by the day. Let’s do a quick summary of each.

NBA Finals

Cavs vs Warriors IV. The finals we wanted but didn’t want. It’s what all the “experts” predicted at the start of the season. And it’s hard to argue, but it’s the finals that we deserve. The best player in the world against the best team in the world. 

Lebron has his work cut out for him in this one though. Draymond and Klay will likely be guarding him this series which is likely an upgrade on Morris and Brown from the Boston series. And now he has to hope that KLove is healthy after sitting out the last 2 games with concussion. After that, the pickings are slim for the Cavs. Jeff Green showed up in Game 7, but has largely been a non-factor in the rest of the playoffs. Similarly, George Hill has had his moments but is likely going to be exhausted from having to defend Steph. 

As much as I am a Lebron Stan, I can’t seeing him win this one by himself. Love needs to show up big time and the supporting cast needs to be reliable. 

As for the Warriors, Steph has come alive to win the series. And they still have KD. If Iguodala is back, with the already proven stars Draymond and Klay, there are just too many pieces for the Cavs to handle. 

Prediction – Warriors 4-1

 

NBA Draft 

This is where it gets exciting! Doncic is firming as the No.1 pick. I’ve watched some highlights and it’s impressive. But I’m not as sold as some of the experts and draft guys. I can’t help but think of him as a Danilo Gallinari clone with better passing. I usually am more supportive of “foreign” players coming into the league given that I’m Australian, but I can’t bring myself to buy into the hype. With the athleticism in the league improving every year, I can’t see Doncic pushing above that to become a generational talent as some are touting. He sees the court well, is a great passer who handles the ball well and he can shoot the ball. But he struggled to get around perimeter players at the Euros and often had to settle for a pull-up. “So what, he’s a great shooter!” I hear you say – but in the NBA that isn’t always going to be effective because defenders are going to be taller, faster and more athletic. I guess we’ll see.

Ayton is a Greg Monroe type player. Great on offense but poor defensively. He’ll get crushed by Embiid and KAT in my opinion.

Bagley is my guy. I love Duke, I think we all know this. The concerns here are his length. Sure he’s athletic at 6’11, but with only a 7’ wing span, can he defend bigger guys?

But the top of the draft isn’t where it gets exciting for me. I like the sleepers! But as Miami has no picks in this draft at this time, I’m not that interested. My biggest focus is on where Grayson Allen goes. I’ve seen him projected anywhere from 21 to mid-2nd round. Grayson is an athlete. He can shoot and he’s a play maker and committed defender. Honestly he’s my sleeper. I think he offers a Dan Majerle comp. Anyone after 15, will get a steal I believe.

 

Free Agency

The biggest news will be where Lebron ends up. Philly or LA? Or does he stay as a Cav? Too hard to stay. I don’t think that anyone can say confidently. No one knew he was coming to Miami. No one knew he was going back to Cleveland. LA makes sense professionally, but not for basketball. I can’t see it happening. Philly also doesn’t make sense for Lebron. Say what you want about him but he has always given praise to young players coming through. I don’t see him coming in to stifle Ben or Joel. I believe he stays with the Cavs. But I honestly think that they change up their roster. If not, he can come back to Miami at any point! LOL

Paul George to LA. But I would not be surprised if it is the Clippers!

Boogie to Lakers. 

Kawhi. Hmm. Tough one. Spurs don’t bend over for players. But I can’t see him staying. I also think he goes to the Clippers. PG and Kawhi with anyone and I think you have a good team. 

Capella is interesting because I don’t think the Rockets can afford him and CP3. But if CP3 is serious, he takes a reduced deal to get Capella over the line. 

But I still come back to the first point. As with previous years, it comes back to when and where Lebron signs. The dominoes don’t fall until Lebron decides.

 

I love the NBA!

 

NBA mid season

Well, just like that we’re over halfway in the NBA and teams are gearing to continue to push for playoffs or to “embrace the tank”. Clearly some teams are already there (I’m looking at you Atlanta!) but with yesterday’s events, it appears that others are about embark on the journey towards the Trae Young/Marvin Bagley III sweepstakes.

 

But before we get into that, lets have get to the key talking points of the season so far:

Rookie of the Year

Really, I think this is a two, possibly three, horse race. For mine, Ben Simmons (16.6 pts, 7.9 rebs and 7.3 assist per game) has this locked in. On team improvement alone (8th in the East, 24-23), he has a solid case but voters may argue that the presence of Joel contributes here. Either way, I think this is Ben’s award to lose. 

The other horses in the race are Jayson Tatum, and at a stretch, Donovan Mitchell. JT has hit a little wall lately, but his performances coupled with his professionalism and poise on the court have him looking more like a vet than a rook. He’s been very impressive. Donovan similarly has performed at a high level and is easily one of the better scoring PG’s in the league. With Utah having to deal with chunks of time without Gobert, and no other consistent offensive threats, this is looking like becoming Donovan’s team. 

Now some might argue for Dennis Smith Jr. or Kyle Kuzma, but I think wins’ count. Whilst both Dallas and the Lakers are towards the bottom of the standings, I can’t see either overtaking the top 3.

 

MVP

Until the last two weeks when it appears that Cleveland have been trending towards becoming the worst team in the league (29th in defensive efficiency, really?!?! *Nick Young surprised face*) this award was all LeBron’s. 

Now I think James Harden is back in the conversation for sure. Westbrook is also continuing to play at a high level, and OKC have found a rhythm. Then there are still KD and Steph who are pacing the league with the Warriors. 

This award is wide open. But I do think that if the Cavs can get back on track, Lebron will take it home.

 

DPOY

Paul George. It’s not even close. Plenty are saying Al Horford, but Bostons team defence allows him to be effective. Joel Embiid torched him. But what PG13 has been able to do for OKC’s defence has been amazing. He has shifted his focus from being a dominant scorer, to being the perfect complement to  

 

Most Improved

Has to be Oladipo. From trade chip to All-star. Case closed

 

6th man

I would have said Lou Williams until today. Now I think he’ll be a starter and will be running the team I think so I’m not sure he’ll be eligible come May. We’ll see. Pencil him in.

 

Coach of the Year

For me – Brad Stevens. Losing Gordon Hayward within 5 minutes of the first game of the season could have derailed Boston. It hasn’t. Not even a little bit. They’re leading the East and are getting super solid contributions from Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. 

And now the rest…

Well we had our first blockbuster trade with Blake Griffin (and Showtime Willie Reed) going to Detroit for Tobias Harris, Boban and Avery Bradley. Sure, there were other pieces but those are the most recognizable names.  The first thing that sticks out to me is that Blake with Andre Drummond isn’t too dissimilar to Blake and Deandre, it’s now just Lob City Lite. Andre isn’t quite the athlete that DJ is, but he is a better scorer and arguably a better rebounder as well. But will Andre be as productive now that Blake will be another, or the most likely, primary option? Blake likely just became the best PF in the East. His only real challenger to that is Kevin Love I suppose. Certainly, different from having to go up against the talent in the West night in and night out. 

But conversely Avery Bradley is going West which will be a significant change for him. Bradley has become known as a good defender in his career to this point. This reputation has developed in the East though, where he has come up against an aging Dwyane Wade, and a smaller pool of elite level guards. In the west, he’ll be guarding the Warriors back court more often, the Rockets backcourt more often, the Westbrooks, McCollums, Butlers and others for most his games. We’re going to find out if he is a good defender for real or if the East inflated this perception. 

Perception is that Detroit won the trade via virtue of getting the best player in the deal. But Blakes injury history, plus the size of the contract put some red flags on this one for me.

 

Boogie Cousins is the other big ticket item for me. An Achilles injury for a big man is tough to recover from. But for the rest of the season, the Pelicans now become a 1-man show. AD is really going to have to  work hard to keep the Pels in the running for the playoffs. 

As for next year, the injury really limits Cousins’ options. It’s likely that he will stay with New Orleans now. But as we saw with Kobe, an Achilles injury does impact. I know that Kobe was a lot further on in his career, but it’s still a significant injury. And when you consider that bigsusually suffer with leg ailments later in their careers anyway, this is not a good sign for Boogie.

Thoughts and ponderings

I write this post not looking for comment or opinion, more as a diary entry to get things off my chest. See I was raised not in what one would call a traditional home. Youngest of identical twins. Divorced parents. Lesbian drug taking and selling mother. Narcissistic alcoholic father who married three times before I hit my teens. I wont go in to my extended family because it really doesn't get any better. I went to 8 or 9 different schools over the course of my younger years. We lived in over 50 houses. I saw and experienced things that in this day and age would earn me my own tv show and or some sort of special where Scott Cam would come and build me a house. Which is why I write this post. As an 8 year old child I witness my mother get bashed and kidnapped. She was stabbed thirty two times and left for dead in a cemetery. To her credit she showed a tonne of fight and survived. My brother and I were not traumatised by this event, it upset us sure. But after attending 3 court ordered pyschology sessions our grandparents were told that he didn't need to see us anymore as we were so well adjusted. Now 25 years later I struggle to understand how we have so many out of control kids. I don't say this as a braggart but I doubt any of them have been through one quarter of what my brother and I went through before we were 10 years old. I have owned nearly a million dollars of property in my life, worked for a government agency for nearly a decade, rising in the ranks quicker than anyone who didn't have a university degree, and have spent the last half a decade in the service of my country in the Australian Defence Force, deploying to Afghanistan in 2012. I am the proud father of 3 little girls and the husband to an amazing woman who is my rock. I have fought to get to where I am today and will not go backwards for anything or anyone. My only fear in life is that my children grow up to be out of control fuckwits. I am doing my best to raise them with morals and values similar to what I hold true. To have self discipline in everything they do. The most important lesson I feel I can teach them is that it's not what you do while people are watching but when no one is watching that counts. No regrets. No giving up. No settling for the easy option. Nothing in life is easy. No one owes you anything and you need to work hard to get anywhere and to earn anyone's respect. If in 20 years I can look at my children and think that they are living those lessons then I think I will be a successful parent. If they turn out to be little slappers filming themselves grinding on skinny little drugged out cockheads I will knock heads with everyone that is in that video. Anyway that's my two cents. Happy to have that off my chest.